Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benevento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benevento 1-1 Sudtirol
Original prediction
Benevento
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 46.8% | 40.5% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 29.4% | 29.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.8% | 29.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Benevento
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Benevento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BeneventoLLWDW
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
SudtirolWDWDD
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BeneventoSudtirol
50.0Attack40.4
50.0Defence57.9
50.0Form41.2
50.0Power48.6
1.25xG1.00