Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benevento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benevento 2-0 Cesena
Original prediction
Benevento
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.7% | 41.5% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.8% | 28.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 24.5% | 30.2% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Benevento
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Benevento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BeneventoLWWLD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CesenaDDDWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
BeneventoCesena
40.0Attack46.7
66.7Defence60.0
46.7Form46.7
53.0Power54.5
1.19xG1.02