Bayern Munich Wvs
Manchester City W
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League Women · 9/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayern Munich W 2-2 Manchester City W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 44.9% | 25.4% | -19.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.5% | 22.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.6% | 52.4% | 20.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 6 · avg 3.60/1.20
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00