Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 01:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
62.6%
Model confidence
62.6%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Basel WLDDDW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Aarau WLLLDL
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Basel WAarau W
50.0Attack29.2
58.3Defence0.0
50.0Form4.2
55.1Power14.3
3.00xG0.74