Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luzern W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Luzern W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aarau W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Luzern W hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.3% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Luzern W holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luzern W
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Luzern W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 2 · GA 17 · avg 0.40/3.40