Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnsley · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Barnsley are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Crewe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Crewe hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 48.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.5% in the League Cup, while Barnsley holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Barnsley
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
13.5%
Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80