Barnetvs
Swindon Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnet · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barnet 1-3 Swindon Town
Original prediction
Barnet
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.5% | 71.6% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.53 | 20.5% | 17.2% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 5.81 | 16.0% | 11.3% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Barnet
Probability
71.6%
Model confidence
71.6%
Barnet has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarnetWWDWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Swindon TownDLLDL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
BarnetSwindon Town
81.5Attack30.3
55.6Defence54.5
77.8Form36.4
73.6Power42.2
2.39xG0.67