Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnet · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barnet 1-1 Oldham
Original prediction
Barnet
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 53.9% | 50.7% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.4% | 25.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.30 | 21.6% | 23.8% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Barnet
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Barnet has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarnetLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OldhamLWWDL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BarnetOldham
76.7Attack39.4
50.0Defence48.5
70.0Form33.3
67.2Power41.1
2.75xG0.99