Barivs
AZ Picerno
COMPLETEDItaly · Coppa Italia Serie C · 9/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bari · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bari 1-1 AZ Picerno
Original prediction
Bari
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.2% | 42.7% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.1% | 27.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 16.7% | 29.5% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Bari
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Bari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BariLWWDD
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
AZ PicernoWWWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BariAZ Picerno
33.3Attack66.7
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power80.3
1.32xG1.18