Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahia · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahia 2-1 Remo
Original prediction
Bahia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 65.9% | 60.3% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.56 | 20.5% | 22.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 6.89 | 13.6% | 17.5% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Bahia
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Bahia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BahiaWWWDD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RemoLLLDD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BahiaRemo
51.3Attack38.5
59.0Defence44.9
55.1Form29.5
57.1Power39.8
1.92xG0.82