Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahia 1-0 Mirassol
Original prediction
Bahia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 56.5% | 55.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 23.5% | 24.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 20.0% | 20.8% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Bahia
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Bahia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BahiaLLWWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MirassolDWWDW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BahiaMirassol
49.4Attack39.1
58.6Defence50.6
52.9Form37.9
55.7Power45.1
1.62xG0.85