Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bahia 0-3 Flamengo
Original prediction
Flamengo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.33 | 28.4% | 23.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.8% | 24.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 45.8% | 51.7% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BahiaWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FlamengoDWDWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BahiaFlamengo
48.9Attack64.4
60.0Defence72.2
54.4Form71.1
56.5Power69.1
0.84xG1.46