Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avellino · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avellino 4-1 Sampdoria
Original prediction
Avellino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 35.0% | 46.9% | 11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 30.0% | 26.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.0% | 26.4% | -8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Avellino
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Avellino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvellinoLDWWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SampdoriaWLLLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AvellinoSampdoria
46.7Attack33.3
60.0Defence40.0
46.7Form26.7
51.9Power36.7
1.66xG0.90