Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avellino 1-1 Palermo
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.65 | 25.5% | 27.3% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.4% | 28.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 45.1% | 44.2% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvellinoWWLLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PalermoWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AvellinoPalermo
36.8Attack100.0
50.4Defence66.7
41.9Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
0.94xG1.52