Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avellino · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avellino 0-1 Padova
Original prediction
Avellino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.9% | 54.7% | 11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.6% | 25.0% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 27.5% | 20.3% | -7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Avellino
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Avellino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvellinoDWLDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
PadovaLLLWL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AvellinoPadova
57.1Attack28.6
61.9Defence52.4
52.4Form33.3
57.2Power41.2
1.71xG0.72