Austinvs
San Jose Earthquakes
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/6/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Jose Earthquakes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Original prediction
San Jose Earthquakes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.2% | 28.7% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.3% | 21.3% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.5% | 50.1% | 17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
San Jose Earthquakes
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
San Jose Earthquakes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60