Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austin 3-3 San Diego
Original prediction
San Diego
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.3% | 34.5% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.3% | 28.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 35.4% | 37.5% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AustinDWDDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
San DiegoDLLLW
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AustinSan Diego
41.0Attack56.4
43.6Defence43.6
38.5Form39.7
43.1Power46.6
1.49xG1.77