Austinvs
Nashville SC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/11/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nashville SC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austin 1-4 Nashville SC
Original prediction
Nashville SC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.71 | 25.4% | 24.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.6% | 26.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 49.1% | 49.8% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Nashville SC
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Nashville SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80