Atlético Malveiravs
Fazendense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Malveira · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Malveira 3-1 Fazendense
Original prediction
Atlético Malveira
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 64.0% | 47.6% | -16.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.8% | 26.1% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 6.40 | 14.2% | 26.3% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Malveira
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Atlético Malveira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00