Atletico Torquevs
Penarol
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Torque 1-1 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 30.4% | 30.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.3% | 27.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 41.3% | 41.5% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80