Atletico Paranaensevs
Palmeiras
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/17/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Palmeiras
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 33.1% | 27.7% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.2% | 27.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 38.7% | 45.2% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00