Atletico Paranaensevs
Bahia
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/20/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia
Original prediction
Atletico Paranaense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.6% | 43.2% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.0% | 26.0% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 29.4% | 30.8% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60