Atletico Paranaensevs
Atletico-MG
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico-MG
Original prediction
Atletico Paranaense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 44.8% | 45.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.2% | 28.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 26.1% | 27.1% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20