Atletico-MGvs
Vitoria
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 8/29/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico-MG · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico-MG 1-0 Vitoria, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico-MG 2-1 Vitoria
Original prediction
Atletico-MG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.8% | 55.6% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.0% | 25.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.64 | 20.2% | 18.5% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Projected Score
Atletico-MG 1–0 Vitoria
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Atletico-MG
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Atletico-MG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico-MGDDDWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VitoriaLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Atletico-MGVitoria
43.5Attack31.9
60.9Defence51.4
47.8Form40.3
51.8Power43.0
1.39xG0.67