Atletico-MGvs
Santos
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico-MG · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos
Original prediction
Atletico-MG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.5% | 44.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.4% | 26.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 29.0% | 29.7% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Atletico-MG
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Atletico-MG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80