Atletico-MGvs
Fluminense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico-MG · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico-MG 3-1 Fluminense
Original prediction
Atletico-MG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 44.1% | 37.3% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 29.0% | 28.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.9% | 34.5% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Atletico-MG
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Atletico-MG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00