Atletico-MGvs
Coritiba
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/17/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico-MG · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico-MG 1-0 Coritiba
Original prediction
Atletico-MG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 60.2% | 57.0% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.5% | 23.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 5.81 | 16.3% | 19.6% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Atletico-MG
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Atletico-MG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00