Atletico-MGvs
Chapecoense-sc
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico-MG · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc
Original prediction
Atletico-MG
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 68.5% | 69.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.9% | 18.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 8.14 | 11.6% | 12.0% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Atletico-MG
Probability
69.1%
Model confidence
69.1%
Atletico-MG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80