Athletic Carpivs
PRO Vercelli
COMPLETEDItaly · Coppa Italia Serie C · 9/2/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Carpi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Carpi 1-1 PRO Vercelli
Original prediction
Athletic Carpi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 39.9% | 42.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.3% | 28.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.8% | 29.6% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Carpi
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Athletic Carpi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40