Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atalanta 3-1 Venezia
Original prediction
Atalanta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 60.7% | 54.8% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 21.8% | 24.2% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 5.44 | 17.4% | 21.0% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtalantaLLLWW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VeneziaLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtalantaVenezia
33.3Attack26.7
53.3Defence13.3
40.0Form0.0
45.3Power19.2
1.74xG0.87