Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Frosinone · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone
Original prediction
Frosinone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 50.6% | 35.8% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 23.0% | 23.8% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 26.5% | 40.5% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.14 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Frosinone
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Frosinone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtalantaLLWWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FrosinoneWLWWD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtalantaFrosinone
47.6Attack61.9
47.6Defence57.1
42.9Form61.9
48.2Power60.7
1.29xG1.66