Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari
Original prediction
Atalanta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 57.3% | 44.2% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 25.0% | 28.2% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 17.7% | 27.7% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtalantaLWWWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CagliariWLLWW
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AtalantaCagliari
44.4Attack22.2
66.7Defence88.9
66.7Form66.7
62.6Power62.6
1.19xG0.94