Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atalanta 1-0 Bologna
Original prediction
Atalanta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 49.7% | 46.2% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.7% | 27.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.04 | 23.6% | 26.3% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtalantaWWDWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BolognaLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AtalantaBologna
66.7Attack0.0
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.59xG0.93