Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kyzyltash · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Astrakhan 0-0 Kyzyltash
Original prediction
Kyzyltash
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 32.0% | 29.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.8% | 26.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.3% | 44.5% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Kyzyltash
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Kyzyltash has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AstrakhanLWDLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
KyzyltashWLWLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AstrakhanKyzyltash
38.7Attack58.7
50.7Defence53.3
36.0Form53.3
43.0Power55.4
1.11xG1.64