Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Druzhba · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Astrakhan 2-3 Druzhba
Original prediction
Druzhba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 29.5% | 27.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.9% | 27.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.6% | 44.4% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Druzhba
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Druzhba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AstrakhanLDLWD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DruzhbaWDWLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AstrakhanDruzhba
37.0Attack44.4
50.6Defence63.0
34.6Form53.1
42.0Power54.7
0.85xG1.25