Aston Villavs
Nottingham Forest
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest
Original prediction
Aston Villa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.7% | 36.4% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.6% | 28.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 29.7% | 35.5% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00