Aston Villavs
Manchester City
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City
Original prediction
Manchester City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.88 | 19.5% | 16.8% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 22.0% | 20.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 58.5% | 62.8% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Manchester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 18 · GA 10 · avg 3.60/2.00