Aston Villavs
Brentford
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 35.2% | 24.2% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 27.2% | 24.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 37.6% | 51.2% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00