Aston Villavs
Arsenal
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 8/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.28 | 15.3% | 25.8% | 10.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 21.9% | 25.4% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 62.8% | 48.8% | -14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aston VillaLLLLW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ArsenalWWDLW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Aston VillaArsenal
0.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power97.0
1.26xG1.89