Aston Villavs
Arsenal
SCHEDULEDEngland · Premier League · 8/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Aston Villa are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Arsenal are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal hold a 18.1-point power-rating edge (57.6 v 75.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely result in the Premier League, favouring Arsenal with 9.8% confidence, a 62% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
64.8%
Model confidence
9.8%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00