Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ascoli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ascoli 1-0 Empoli, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ascoli 1-1 Empoli
Original prediction
Ascoli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 49.5% | 52.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.1% | 26.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 23.4% | 20.8% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Ascoli 1–0 Empoli
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Ascoli
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Ascoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AscoliDWLWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
EmpoliLLLWL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AscoliEmpoli
38.9Attack33.3
77.8Defence44.4
61.1Form33.3
61.7Power40.3
1.49xG0.67