Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ascoli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ascoli 0-0 Carrarese, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese
Original prediction
Ascoli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.6% | 43.1% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.4% | 30.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 23.0% | 26.1% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Projected Score
Ascoli 0–0 Carrarese
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Ascoli
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Ascoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AscoliWLWLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CarrareseLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AscoliCarrarese
33.3Attack34.2
63.2Defence57.0
36.0Form39.5
45.9Power45.8
0.92xG0.69