Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ascoli 0-0 Benevento, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ascoli 1-0 Benevento
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 37.0% | 35.2% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.3% | 30.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.7% | 33.9% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Ascoli 0–0 Benevento
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AscoliDWLWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BeneventoDLLWD
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AscoliBenevento
33.3Attack50.0
63.2Defence50.0
36.0Form50.0
45.9Power50.0
0.96xG0.94