Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ascoli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ascoli 0-0 Avellino, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ascoli 3-1 Avellino
Original prediction
Ascoli
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.3% | 37.6% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.0% | 30.7% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.7% | 31.7% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Projected Score
Ascoli 0–0 Avellino
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Ascoli
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Ascoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AscoliLWDWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AvellinoDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AscoliAvellino
33.3Attack33.3
63.2Defence66.7
36.0Form33.3
45.9Power45.3
0.96xG0.90