Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Roma 2-2 Inter
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 36.0% | 44.6% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.3% | 25.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.7% | 30.0% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AS RomaWDWWW
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
InterWLWWW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AS RomaInter
100.0Attack100.0
91.7Defence50.0
100.0Form100.0
95.3Power85.8
1.88xG1.24