Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 55.5% | 45.4% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.9% | 27.4% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.82 | 19.7% | 27.2% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AS RomaWWDLW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
AtalantaWWWDW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AS RomaAtalanta
100.0Attack50.0
100.0Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
100.0Power83.3
1.46xG1.04