Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal W 1-0 Køge W
Original prediction
Arsenal W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.04 | 88.6% | 49.6% | -39.0 pts |
| Draw | 11.88 | 7.8% | 21.0% | 13.2 pts |
| Away | 25.88 | 3.6% | 29.3% | 25.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-39.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal W
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Arsenal W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Arsenal WDDWWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Køge WWWLDW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Arsenal WKøge W
100.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence75.0
66.7Form83.3
71.2Power76.6
1.81xG1.87