Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal 2-1 Leeds
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 67.2% | 48.5% | -18.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 20.7% | 26.1% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 7.88 | 12.1% | 25.3% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArsenalLWWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeedsDWLDD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ArsenalLeeds
53.3Attack46.7
73.3Defence80.0
80.0Form60.0
69.6Power63.3
1.31xG0.99