Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arsenal 1-0 Everton, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal 2-0 Everton
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 65.6% | 53.9% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 21.1% | 25.7% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 7.17 | 13.2% | 20.3% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Projected Score
Arsenal 1–0 Everton
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArsenalDWWWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
EvertonLDWWD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ArsenalEverton
52.4Attack38.1
76.2Defence66.7
85.7Form47.6
73.0Power53.0
1.37xG0.73