Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 55.6% | 47.4% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 25.0% | 25.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 19.4% | 27.0% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArsenalWWWDL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ChelseaWWWWD
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArsenalChelsea
66.7Attack100.0
100.0Defence16.7
100.0Form100.0
89.7Power79.2
1.97xG1.37