Arsenal Tulavs
Ural
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ural · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arsenal Tula 0-1 Ural, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Tula 2-2 Ural
Original prediction
Ural
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.30 | 28.0% | 19.6% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.6% | 26.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 42.4% | 54.2% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.8 pts
Projected Score
Arsenal Tula 0–1 Ural
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Ural
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Ural has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Arsenal TulaLWDDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UralWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Arsenal TulaUral
29.2Attack57.1
50.0Defence90.5
45.8Form66.7
44.3Power70.4
0.59xG1.53